Historians still debate the
decline and end of the Roman Empire, a subject which inspired Edward Gibbon’s
masterpiece, perhaps the most widely read history
books ever. This blog will just add my personal views on a
topic that has been covered many times by other authors. Many hypothesis have been proposed for the Roman decline. Some point to Christianity as a source of imperial Rome's weakness. However, the Eastern Empire was also Christian and remained a strong power until the 12th century at least. Others point out that too much lead in the water supplies was slowly poisoning the Roman population. However, it feels to me that the barbarians that penetrated the Roman empire, such as the Vandals and Visigoths, were also getting water from the same sources as the Romans, therefore I feel this to be a weak explanation.
The Roman Empire started a slow
decline after the Antonine plague, which some estimate killed five million
people or more than 10% of the empire’s population. The plague ended the period
of greatest economic prosperity of the Roman Empire. It happened just at the
climax of the greatest political and military influence of the Empire, since
their major rivals, the Parthians, had been repeatedly defeated by the Romans.
However, a plague does not always imply the decline of a civilization. In the
late middle ages the Black Plague killed a substantial part of the European
population and some economic historians say that this disease increased the
wages of workers (since now there were fewer people than land) and this
increase in wages may have given impulse to new industries and the long term
development of Europe.
The reason why the Roman Empire
may have declined and eventually disintegrated is therefore probably not due to
a plague nor due to military defeats. Urban populations after a plague can employ
new workers at higher wages and find new arts and industries in order to
recover their wealth and splendor. Also, the Roman Empire had suffered defeats
far worse than the famous disaster of Adrianopole in the late 4th
century. In particular, it is easy to argue that the military defeats against
Hannibal during the Punic wars, the disasters against the Teutons around 105 BC,
or the rebellion of the Italian provinces during the Social War of 88 BC, were
far bigger than the battle of Adrianopole. The long lasting nature of the
Romans was not that their armies were always invincible, but their ability to
persuade their citizens to form a new army even after suffering major defeats.
Presumably, persuading your citizens to join the military effort was easier in
an oligarchy or autocracy that had some respect for citizen rights. However,
after the 2nd century the Romans became a military regime in which
only the generals and their troops counted for something, a bit like the Soviet
Union which had the largest army in the world and yet was unable to produce
decent products such as toilet paper or bread. In such a military regime
probably the citizens were afraid of their Roman oppressors as much as of their
barbarian invaders. After a military defeat in the 4th or 5th
century few Romans would cooperate with their generals and authorities, because
Roman generals feared that their fellow citizens could be rivals in the
competition for power and therefore even if the new generals were successful
these could be murdered afterward when they were no longer convenient. This
meant that the late Roman authorities would find few allies and would lose
power easily after military defeats.
In my view perhaps a decisive
moment in Roman history were the budget and monetary policies adopted by a very
successful emperor Septimius Severus. Severus is one of the few generals in
history who won large battles in three continents: Europe, Asia and Africa.
Some historians believe that the battle of Lugdunum in which Severus confirmed
his power was the bloodiest battle in all of roman history. Severus
then enlarged the army in order to make further wars in Asia, Africa and
Britain. He also increased the wage of each soldier by 30% in order to guarantee
their loyalty. Above I show a picture of me and my twin brother – I am the one
with longer hair – on top of the Roman wall in the city of York, England, which
was where Severus died in sickness while planning to conquer Scotland. Below I show a picture of the roman theater in the African home town
of Severus, Leptis Magna.
In order to pay for this large
army expenses, Severus debased the coins and started an inflationary period from which Rome never recovered. As economists know, debasing the currency and
creating rampant inflation is the worst possible way for a government to make
revenues. It is much better to raise taxes,
since the more inflation you make to pay something then you need even more inflation
in the future to pay for the same things. The inflation process can go out of control and the government is unable to use money anymore. Also,
ordinary business men and people stop using money and lose their confidence in
the government. Inflation was already understood as a bad decision even in
ancient times. Severus only adopted this bad measure because he came to power
as a military dictator and only valued his soldiers. In fact Severus famous
last words to his sons in York were: "Be harmonious, enrich the soldiers,
and scorn all other men". Being unable to persuade the Senate to cooperate,
Severus was limited to the worst policy option to finance his wars, which
was inflation.
During the 3rd and 4th centuries it was clear that inflation was damaging the roman economy and their government system. Laws were passed authorizing generals to
directly seize products and valuables for use of the army, therefore ordinary
taxes paid in money fell out of use. Also, since workers and business men did
not want to work in industries that were more easily “taxable” or “seized”, the
Roman authorities ended up passing laws obliging people to stay in the area
where they had been born and to work in the same occupation as their parents.
Feudalism had started. The free and vibrant economy had been replaced by a
planned and rigid system.
The Roman army was never actually
defeated by the barbarian invaders. Even after losses such as Adrianopole the
Roman leaders were able to persuade the “winners” to become cheap mercenaries
for them. Therefore the barbarians could be described as a form of cheap labor
in the official Roman army. Some historians, such as Peter Heather, even argue
that these cheap Barbarian soldiers were actually what kept the Roman Empire
running well and efficiently during the 5th century. However, the
Western Roman Empire was dependent on revenues from the large olive oil fields
and other agricultural farms in modern day Tunisia. When a corrupt province
governor and a group of barbarians, the Vandals, managed to occupy Tunisia,
then Roman emperors lost a major source of revenue. After a few decades and an
exhaustive war with the Huns, the Western Roman Empire was out of revenue and
the Barbarian soldiers employed by the Emperor decided to rebel and simply run
Italy as a kingdom for themselves. Therefore one could say that mismanagement
in the form of inflation to pay for a military dictatorship and a lack of money
to pay the wages of soldiers was the end of the Roman Empire. The Eastern Roman
Empire was much more urbanized, had a stronger economy, and was therefore able
to resist invasions from the Balkans, the Middle East and from Central Asia for
several centuries more.
The Courage to Act es el relato autobiográfico de Ben Bernanke y
de su rol como presidente de la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos durante la
Gran Recesión (2008-09), la crisis económica más profunda sufrida por ese país
desde la Gran Depresión (1929-33). Aunque las crisis financieras son
impredecibles, estas suceden tarde o temprano. Bernanke confiesa que fue
totalmente sorprendido por la crisis e incluso en 2006 no vislumbró el caos que
se aproximaba. Sin embargo, Bernanke estaba singularmente preparado para
responder al colapso económico de 2008, dadas sus reflexiones sobre la Gran Depresión
de 1929 y las crisis más recientes de Japón y Suecia.
